- Held by: Donna Bauer
- Since: 2010
- Swing at 2010 election: 8.7 per cent
- Redistribution details: Carrum stretched along the bay from Aspendale to Seaford. But the redistribution has removed its northern end and shifted it inland to include parts of Cranbourne. It has lost northern suburbs including Aspendale, Edithvale, Chelsea and Chelsea Heights to Mordialloc and gained others including Carrum Downs, Sandhurst and Skye from Cranbourne. The Liberal margin is cut from 2.0 per cent to an estimated 0.3 per cent
- Size of electorate: 86.9 square kilometres
KEY COMMENTS: Liberal backbencher Donna Bauer, who earlier this year revealed that she would undergo chemotherapy treatment for cancer, is expected to struggle to hold the electorate after electoral boundary changes reduced her estimated margin in a seat traditionally held by the ALP.
Changes to electoral boundaries last year may help the ALP regain the south eastern seat of Carrum it has held most often since the electorate was created nearly 40 years ago.
Liberal MP Donna Bauer recognised the threat when the Electoral Boundaries Commission released its draft changes last year in which Carrum was to move east to take in parts of Labor-held Lyndhurst and Cranbourne. ‘If you look at what is proposed, Carrum would potentially become Victoria’s most marginal seat,’ Bauer she reportedly said . ‘It looks like they have cut the electorate in half.’
Bauer’s concerns at the implications for a seat that was already one of Victoria’s most marginal were later confirmed. The changes in electoral boundaries have cut her estimated margin to just 0.3 per cent.