- Held by: Jude Perera (ALP)
- Since: 2002
- Swing at 2010 election: -9.4 per cent
- Redistribution details: Cranbourne lost Carrum Downs, Sandhurst, Skye, Frankston North and Langwarrin and gained parts of Cranbourne South, Devon Meadows, Cranbourne North, Lyndhurst and Lynbrook. Its margin of 1.8 per cent has been reduced to an estimated 1.1 per cent.
- Size of electorate: 80.2 square kilometres
KEY COMMENTS: Labor’s Jude Perera, who has held the seat for 12 years, was comfortably re-elected in 2006 but narrowly held on at the 2010 election after withstanding an above average 9.4 per cent swing (a 12.6 per cent drop in the primary vote). He faces a high profile Liberal candidate in an electorate in which housing development has brought a significant influx of new, heavily mortgaged voters.
Cranbourne a heavily mortgaged claybelt conundrum
To see why the once safe ALP seat of Cranbourne has become one of Victoria’s most marginal, turn left off the South Gippsland Highway at the police station instead of continuing on to Phillip Island and the coast.
In just a few kilometres you will see thousands of new homes on brand new housing estates. They’re not quite gated communities but might be the next best thing, each ready to accept increasing numbers of heavily mortgaged young families and first home buyers.
The City of Casey, which covers much of the outer south eastern “clay belt” electorate, estimates its fast-growing population at just over 280,000 and predicts it could reach nearly 460,000 in little more than two decades.